中国地震应急宏观分区的初步研究

THE PRELIMINARY STUDY ON MACRO-SCALE ZONATION OF EARTHQUAKE EMERGENCY RESPONSE (EER) OF CHINA

文中首先分析了区域地震活动、自然地理环境和社会经济条件影响地震应急的途径、方式和程度;然后提取了“地震综合危险性、人口经济密度、区域性地震次生自然灾害、地方潜在应急投入系数和等级公路密度”作为分区指标,通过“自上而下”的区划途径和主导因素法、部门叠置法与地理相关分析法相配合的区划手段,对中国大陆进行了地震应急宏观分区研究。结果表明,中国大陆可初步分成8个地震应急大区,各大区的地震应急宏观特点差异很大,是各地制定、实施和发展有地域针对性的地震应急对策体系时的基本依据。

The factors, that have impacts on earthquake emergency response （EER） in a region, mainly involve the following three aspects, the seismic activities, the physical geographic environments and the social-economic conditions. In different regions, the overall seismic activity levels and features at various time scales are the basic reference for constructing the EER system at ordinary times and making emergency response preparedness when earthquake is impending. The physical geographic environments of each region determine the distinct emergency response and relief background and surroundings of various regions at the macro and holistic level, and the disaster-formation processes and patterns of an earthquakes occurring in different physical geographic environments usually have marked region-specific characteristics, so the EER will be more efficient when these regional processes and patterns are dealt with properly. For a certain intense earthquake, the social-economic conditions are the determinant factors in defining what forms and how serious the earthquake disaster will be, and thus affecting EER directly and evidently. At the same time, the different social-economic conditions of different areas also mean the different transportation and communication, medical and rescue facilities, relief resources, as well as self- and mutual relief competences. All these three aspects interweave together and make the EER issue be branded of inevitably remarkable regional or local-specific natures. Based on the above cognition, we take the regional integrated seismic risk, the population-economy density, earthquake-induced secondary natural hazards, local EER input potential coefficient and the local high-rank road density as zonation criteria or indexes, to carry out the macro-scale zonation of EER of Chinese mainland using the principal factor method, overlay method and geographical correlation analysis and through the top-to-bottom region-dividing process. The result shows that the Chinese mainland can be divided into eight macro-scale EER regions, namely, the Northeast China-eastern Inner Mongolia EER region （ Ⅰ ）, the North China EER region（ Ⅱ ）, the Southeast China EER region（ Ⅲ ）, the Loess Plateau EER region（ Ⅳ ）, the Guizhou Plateau-eastern Sichuan EER region （ Ⅴ ）, the Yunnan-western Sichuan EER region（Ⅵ）, the Xinjiang EER region （Ⅶ） and the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau EER region（Ⅷ）. The result also suggests that the macro-characteristics of EER in each region are different markedly and they shall be taken as the primary reference basis for planning, implementing and developing the region-specific EER countermeasure systems in the respective regions.