气候变暖对小麦蒸散和产量的可能影响

Study on the Possible Impact of Climate Warming on the Evapotranspiration and Yield of Winter Wheat

利用水分与小麦生长关系的模拟模式，估算了气候变暖后小麦不同发育阶段农田蒸散量的可能变化及其对产量的影响。结果表明，温度升高时小麦生长中后期实际蒸腾量和总蒸散量明显减少，将导致干物质下降，产量减少，产值降低，并需额外增加灌溉，从而使农业生产费用增加。

Based on the simulation model describing the relationship between water use and thegrowth of wheat,the possible change of crop evapotranspiration in different developmentstages of winter wheat and its impact on wheat yield under warming climate are estimated.The results show that the transpiration and evapotranspiration after jointing stage of winterwheat decreases significantly under temperature increase, which would result in the reduc-tion of dry matter and yield,and the required additional irrigation,therefore the cost of agri-cultural production might be increased.