相依自然降水序列干湿游程特征量的模拟分析

Aanlysing on the Theoretical Modelling of the Features for Surplus and Deficient Runs in Dependent Precipitation Series

以游程理论中ＳｅｎＺ．的方法为基础，研究了相依自然降水序列的主要干湿游程特征量──有限样本长度，给定截取水平的交互点数，干湿游程长的期望值，正、负游程和的期望值等的理论模拟模式。并以郑州１０年逐旬降水序列对模拟结果进行了验证，理论与实际结果具有较好的一致性。

The theoretical models of the main surplus and deficient variables of runs in dependentseries of the natural precipitations were studied based on sen Z.’s method of runs theories.The aforementioned variables were the upcrossings and downcrossings for finite samplelength and the point number in turn of preassigned truncating level,the expectation of posi-tive and negative run lengths,and the expactation of surplus and deficient run sums,Themodels were checked up with 10-year’s precipitations of zhengzhou in each 10-day peri-ods. It showed that the theoretical is well in agreement with the actual results. It also gavean example of the method to use the models for the actual application.