大气的混沌性及其对航线天气预报影响的研究

Study of Atmosphere Chaos and Its Effecton Weather Prediction of Ship Routing

叙述大气的混沌性,解释了大气的可预报性问题,说明了两周以上的天气预报不准确的原因。介绍了为解决这一问题,气象学家所提出的集合预报方法,及一些可供保障船舶安全航行所使用的集合预报产品。以此为基础,论述了概率天气预报的科学性和意义,指出了推广使用概率天气预报所面临的问题和困难。最后讨论了大气的混沌性对航线天气预报的影响。指出了目前船舶管理部门和驾驶员最为关心的、对船舶安全威胁最大的热带气旋疑难路径和锋面气旋爆发性发展的预报精度不高这一事实。提出了开发研制能够方便有效地使用概率天气预报产品的计算机软件,与气导航线结合使用,这样方可达到保证航行安全、经济的目的。

By explaining the chaos feature and the predictability of atmosphere, the reason why weather prediction in more than two weeks is not accurate is given in the paper. The method of ensemble prediction presented by meteorologists for solving this problem and some products of ensemble prediction that can be used to ensure the safety of waterway transportation are introduced. On this basis, the significance and scientific nature of probabilistic weather prediction are then been discussed, the problems and the difficulties of using probabilistic weather prediction are pointed out. The effect of atmosphere chaos on the weather prediction of routing is also discussed. The fact is revealed that the accuracy of tropical cyclone motion and explosive cyclone development is low, which ship management departments and officers on deck are much interested in and menace the safety of marine transportation. It is claimed that the way to solve this problem is to develop software that can use products of probabilistic weather prediction easily and effectively and to combine the software with ocean weather routing, then to reach the purpose of safe economical transportation.