基于预报误差的船舶遭遇台风概率预报

Typhoon Strike Probability Forecast Onboard Based on Forecast Errors

在航船做避台决策时,首先要判断该系统预报的恶劣天气对本船未来航线是否有影响。考虑到台风运动的不确定性及台风预报存在误差,根据概率预报的思想,提出了船舶遭遇台风概率的概念,将大范围、不确定的航区天气预报具体到本船航线上。首先针对航行条件下接收的航区的气象预报信息的特点,提出了计算台风预报误差的概率密度的方法;然后提出了以船舶遭遇台风安全距离为依据的预报航线上船舶遭遇台风概率的方法。该方法综合考虑了台风运动与预报的不确定性并将这种不确定性定量化,船长可以此概率预报为基础,结合具体情况确定概率评价值,从而为作出避台决策提供了依据。

The “strike probability” is defined to evaluate the possibility whether the ship is under the threat of the heavy weather of the typhoon when taking the uncertainties of weather system movement and forecast errors into account. The method of calculating the probability density of Typhoon forecast errors for the information received on board is put forward. That this method quantifies the uncertainties is essential for mariners to make decisions.