最优货币政策规则的前瞻性视角分析

A Forward-looking Analysis of the Optimal Monetary Policy Rules

本文采用一个简单的前瞻性(Forward-looking)模型分析了中央银行确定最优货币政策规则的过程。通过对比分析混合名义收入目标和严格通胀水平目标,我们发现这两种目标都是中央银行最优货币政策规则的有效实现形式,从损失函数的角度来看这两种目标应该是无差异的。因此,我国中央银行并不一定必须执行通货膨胀定标的货币政策框架,可以考虑执行既重视产出因素也重视通货膨胀因素的混合名义收入目标框架。

This paper analyzes the process of ascertaining the optimal monetary policy rules through a simple forward - looking model. The result shows that two monetary policy strategies-hybrid nominal income targeting and strict inflation targeting-are efficient strategies of monetary policy in the sense that they are special cases of the optimal monetary policy strategy. In the case of a hybrid nominal income targeting strategy, the central bank chooses a unitary trade - off between real output and the rate of inflation, while under strict inflation targeting the policymaker attaches a zero weight on output in the optimal policy rule. As a result, China can take the hybrid nominal income as its monetary targeting.