消费信贷、信用分配与中国经济发展

Consumer Credit, Credit Allocation and Economic Development

消费信贷是信用资源分配的一种形式。在通货紧缩,消费需求不足的情况下,消费信贷是鼓励提前消费,增加有效需求的一个重要途径,我国的消费信贷就是在这样的背景下发展起来的。然而,消费信贷对经济发展的促进作用更取决于信用资源的有效配置。本文将从信用资源分配的角度来分析消费信贷与经济发展之间的关系。如果消费信贷增长以降低储蓄率、压抑中小企业的资金需求为代价,那么消费信贷对经济增长的积极作用就有可能被抵消;同时如果消费信贷在地区间发展不平衡也会带来经济增长的不平衡,扩大东中西部地区经济发展的差距。本文利用中国分省的消费信贷(主要包括住房信贷、汽车贷款和助学贷款)、居民储蓄率、中小企业贷款和其他相关资料,用实证分析的方法验证消费信贷与居民储蓄率和中小企业贷款之间的消长关系,探讨消费信贷对经济发展的作用,并从信贷组合的角度,提出最佳信贷组合的政策建议。

This paper analyzes the relationship between consumer credit and economic development based on provincial data in China. Consumer credit affects economic growth through the changes in consumption rate, savings rate and credit allocation. In China, consumer credit caused funds flow from low- income households to mid- and high - income households, reduced the marginal propensity to consumption, and therefore the consumption rate. Rapid expansion of consumer credit may （i） reduce the fired supply in other areas （savings rate reduction）, and （ii） crunch out fund supply to SMEs. Over - expansion of consumer credit may reduce the over all economic growth rate. At last the paper brings forward several policy suggestions： Opening up the rural financial markets, and allowing new rural financial institutions. Promulgating a community re - investment law to keep the funds in the rural areas. Promoting interest liberalization over time, while expanding the floating band for the lending rates especially for SMEs and rural areas, and Hastening the establishment of individual credit system.