人民币汇率制度的选择:基于“M-F模型”视角的理论分析

Choice of RMB Exchange Rate Regime:Theoretical Analysis from M-F Model Angle

蒙代尔-弗莱明模型表明,固定汇率制下,财政政策有效,货币政策无效;浮动汇率制下,财政政策无效,货币政策有效。我国现行的汇率制度实质上是盯住美元的固定汇率制度,在货币政策独立性、外汇储备内生性、货币政策目标双重化、货币政策效力等方面对我国货币政策运行存在制约,影响我国货币政策有效性。实行更有弹性和灵活性的汇率制度是提高我国货币政策有效性的有效途径。我国现实经济条件决定了我国汇率制度改革的近期目标是建立汇率目标区,长期目标则是建立浮动汇率制。

Mundell——Fleming Model is an instrument to analyze the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy under different exchange rate regimes in open economy,which was founded in 1960s by Robert A.Mundell and J.Marcus Fleming.M-F Model demonstrates that fiscal policy is effective while monetary policy is ineffective under fixed exchange rate regime;fiscal policy is ineffective while monetary policy is effective under floating exchange rate regime.The existing exchange rate regime of China is in fact Dollar pegged fixed exchange rate regime.It constrains the performance of China's monetary policy in such aspects as independence of monetary policy,internalization of foreign exchange reserves,dualisation of the ultimate goal of monetary policy and the effect of monetary policy,and etc.To promote the effectiveness of China's monetary policy,it is necessary to reform the existing exchange rate regime.China's current economic situation determines that the short-term objective of the exchange rate regime reform is to establish exchange rate Target Zone,while the long-term objective is to establish floating exchange rate regime.