基于自然利率的货币政策效应非对称性研究

Research on the Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policies Based on the Natural Rate of Interest

本文通过对我国自然利率的定量估计,为货币政策紧缩与扩张状态的度量和描述提供了一个"基准":当实际利率高于自然利率时,对应的货币政策是紧缩性的,反之则为扩张性的。为检验我国货币政策效应的非对称性,我们采用脉冲-响应函数模拟了GDP偏移率与通货膨胀对紧缩与扩张性货币政策冲击的动态反应,发现与扩张性货币政策相比,我国紧缩性货币政策具有较强的产出效应和较弱的价格效应。对这一检验结果的分析表明,实际利率与自然利率之间的缺口不仅可以合理地度量货币政策的松紧程度,而且可以作为货币政策制定和评价的一个重要参考依据。

Through estimating the natural rate of interest in China, we provide a ＂benchmark＂ for measuring and describing the tight or easy monetary policies. The monetary policies are tight when the real rate of interest is higher than the natural rate of interest, and vice versa. In order to examine the asymmetric effects of monetary policies in China, we use the impulse-response function to simulate the dynamic response of GDP gap rate and inflation rate to the shock of tight or easy monetary policy. We find that the tight monetary policies have stronger output effects and weaker price effects than the easy ones. The analysis to the results implies that the gap between the real rate of interest and the natural rate of interest can not only reasonably measure the degree of tightness of the monetary policies, but also become an important reference of making or assessing the monetary policies.