美国在“动荡弧”的战略利益分析

An Analysis of American Strategic Interest in the Arc of Instability

美国在“动荡弧”具有地缘、能源、安全等重要战略利益。这个地带既是美国实现和维护全球霸权的“支轴”及确保本土安全和“帝国”稳定的“边疆”,也是确保自身能源需求和掌握影响其他战略力量的有利态势或手段所试图控制的地区,更是消除“伊斯兰恐怖主义”紧迫的现实威胁和“伊斯兰主义”在意识形态上的潜在威胁所要改造的地区。当前和今后一段时期,美国在“动荡弧”的行动,不仅有确保现实利益之意,更有谋取有利战略态势,进而由此分割、包围、制约其他战略力量的深远考虑。美国如果在这个地带顺利得手,将不利于其他战略力量在未来国际格局中的态势;但它在这个地带被伤筋动骨甚至最终导致其全球霸权崩溃,也未必符合其他战略力量的根本利益。

The United States has important strategic interests in the Arc of Instability that are related to its concerns about geopolitics, energy supplies, and security. This belt is an axle for the realization and safeguard of American global hegemony as well as a “frontier” for homeland security and “empire” stability. This is also a region where U.S. control would ensure American energy supply and provide favorable posture or means for America to influence other strategic forces. In addition, the transformation of this area would help eliminate the imminent threat of “Islamic terrorism” and the potential ideological threat of “Islamism.” Actions taken by the United States in the Arc of Instability presently and in the near future are motivated not only by considerations of safeguarding immediate interests but also by long-term considerations of obtaining favorable strategic posture so as to break up, encircle and restrain other strategic forces. If the United States gets upper hand in this belt, other strategic forces will be in an unfavorable posture in the future international pattern. But if the United States were seriously battered in this region, thus leading to the collapse of American global hegemony, such a situation might not be in the best interest of other strategic forces.