2008年奥运观众交通需求预测

Prediction of Transportation Demand for Olympic Spectator

针对2008年北京奥运的观众出行进行了交通需求预测.根据场馆分布、比赛日程安排、上座率等因素对奥运公园进行了高峰日观众总量的预测,由往届奥运会的经验及北京市的实际情况对观众来源进行了分析,应用各出行小区的人口及经济发展水平等因素建立模型进行观众交通分布预测,对公交情况及路网容量制约进行了各出行小区到各场馆的观众出行方式及比例预测,从而为观众交通组织及公交的运营规划提供决策依据.

This paper predicts the transportation demand for Beijing Olympic spectator according to the experience of the previous Olympic Games and the situation of Beijing. It divided the spectator origin into national and foreign, Beijing and other province, urban and suburb in Beijing, made prediction of the the rush hour number of spectator in the Olympic Park based on the distributing of gymnasiums, time arrangement for the games and the attendance situation. Make the prediction of the distributing of spectator due to the population and the level of economic situation of different district, and estimate the mode and relevant proportion that people from different district to different gymnasium according to the convenience situation of bus and the restrict of the road capability, consequently, make basis to the transportation organization of spectators and the bus operation plan.