从大国兴衰规律看俄罗斯的再次复兴

Judging Russian Regeneration from Laws Governing Rise and Decline of a Great Power

俄罗斯作为国际法意义上苏联的继承国,虽然继承了苏联的大部分遗产,但其综合国力已今非昔比。有人断言,俄罗斯已经沦为“二流国家”,有人甚至将其列入了“第三世界”。根据保罗·肯尼迪的大国兴衰理论,大国的兴衰有其自身的规律,有兴必有衰,有衰终将兴。虽然俄罗斯已不能与苏联同日而语,但它仍然是一个大国,一个已经衰落了的大国。俄罗斯的再次复兴尽管需要时日,然而却是可以预见的,只不过存在着相对的局限性而已。

Niu Jusheng's article says that Russia is the heir to the Soviet Union in the sense of international law. Despite inheriting most of the USSR legacy, Russia is by far inferior to what the USSR was in comprehensive strength. Some assert that since the disintegration of the USSR, an independent Russia has already been reduced to the status of a second-class country and others even list it as a 'third world country.' They base their arguments on Paul Kennedy's theory on rise and decline of a great power, which argues that there are laws governing rise and decline of a great power and that a great power is bound to rise and decline alternatively. True, Russia cannot be compared with the days of the USSR, but it remains a great power, though a deg enerated one. It will take time for Russia to rehabilitate, but it is predictable that it will, though under relative historical restrictions.