近44年来中国西北降水量变化的区域差异以及对全球变暖的响应

Spatial Differences of Precipitation over Northwest China During the Last 44 Years and Its Response to Global Warming

利用中国西北地区(75～105°E、35～50°N)最近44年(1958～2001年)77个气象台站观测的降水量、气温资料以及NCAR/NCEP再分析资料,采用回归分析与合成分析等方法研究了西北干旱区降水量的时空变化特征及其与全球气温变化的关系.结果表明,西北干旱区的降水量偏多(偏少)与全球平均气温升高(降低)存在一定的对应关系,但降水量随气温的变化存在地域差异,主要表现为干旱区的西部(93°E以西)区域年降水量随全球气温升高呈现增加趋势,而东部(93°E以东)区域年降水量呈减少趋势.

Based on climatic data of precipitation and temperature of 77 meteorological stations covering 1958 - 2001 in the northwestern China （ the area is within the north of 35°N and west of 105°E in China） as well as the NCAR/NCEP reanalyzed data, and by using the methods of regressive analysis and composition analysis, the inter-annual variation of the precipitation over the northwestern China as well as its relationship with global warming were studied. The results show that there exists relationship between the anomalies of precipitation over the northwestern China and that of the global mean temperature. However, the trends of precipitation with temperature are different in west （west of 93 °E） and east part （east of 93°E） of the northwestern China. In west part the precipitation has increased with global warming in the past 44 years, while in east part the precipitation declined.