摘要
市场环境下,研究水电站发电风险调度问题,尽可能地得到水电站的可发电量及不同电量相应的风险率,为水电公司在期货(合约)市场上签订售电合同时提供决策依据,是非常必要的。文中探讨了市场环境下水电站发电风险调度问题,建立了双风险因子的数学模型,并首次运用改进的一次二阶矩法对此模型进行解算,得到了效益与风险的定量关系。实例研究表明该模型及其解算方法是可行与有效的。
It is very important to research power generation risk dispatching of hydropower station under the condition of electricity market. Having predicted the amount of generation of hydropower stations and risk-rate corresponding to various generation, the hydropower companies can obtain the available information for reference when they make futures agreements under the electricity market. The research actuality of power generation risk dispatching of hydropower station and the model of two-risk-element by probability risk-analysis are presented and the methods of ameliorative first-order second-moment are used to solve the model. Finally, the quantificational relation between benefit and risk can be gained. The feasibility and validity of model ＆ resolving methods are verified by the example.
出处
《水力发电学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第5期1-6,109,共7页
Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering
基金
武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室开放研究基金项目(whu2005B018)
华北电力大学引进高层次人才科启基金(KH1409)
国家自然科学青年基金项目(50209011)
关键词
水电站
发电风险调度
模型
改进一次二阶矩法
hydropower stations
power generation risk dispatching
model
ameliorative first-order second-moment method
