基于灰色系统理论的电信设备拥有量预测

Application in development plan forecast of the telecommunication facilities′size with the theory of grey system

目的实现对电信设备拥有量发展计划的预测。方法引入灰色系统理论预测模型,结合国家统计局公布的近年来电信设备实际拥有量数据进行预测设计。结果形成一种使用灰色系统理论对电信设备拥有量发展计划的预测方法。结论该方法简单、快速、实用,具有一定的预测精度。在实施重大计划决策时,可与其他预测方法一起使用。

Aim To realize the development plan forecast of the telecommunication facilities＇size with the theory of grey system. Methods Introduce the model of grey system, demonstrate an employment of it is based on the years＇ amount information of the telecommunication facilities released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Results A way was made to perform the development plan forecast of telecommunication facilities＇size with the theory of grey system. Conclusion This method is of the normal accuracy, its characteristics are simple, fast and practical, it is better to use it with the other forecast methods in case of an important forecast.