建筑业对经济增长的长期和短期影响

Short-and Long-Term Effects of the Construction Industry on the Economy Growth

因为建筑业对经济具有很强的带动作用,建筑业可以发展成为国民经济的支柱产业,但这种观点缺乏明确的实证依据。采用协整、葛兰杰因果检验与误差修正模型等方法,以四川省为例,分析了建筑业对经济增长的长期和短期影响,发现长期来看,经济与建筑业保持长期均衡关系,建筑业增长将带动经济增长,但带动作用小;短期内建筑业增长不能预示经济增长。因此,从四川省来看,政府不能用建筑业短期刺激经济,但可以采用稳健的建筑业发展政策以促使国民经济长期发展。

The construction industry could be developed as a pillar industry of the national economy, since it has a strong pulling role in economic growth. However, little definite empirical evidence supports this argument. Using co - integration and Granger causality tests and error - correction model with taking Sichuan for an example, this article studies both short - term and long - term effects of the construction industry on the economy growth. Empirical tests show that in the long term the economy maintained equilibrium relations with the construction industry. A growth in the construction industry will lead to the economic growth; however the pulling role of the construction industry on the economy is limited. A growth in the construction industry will not predict economic growth in the short run. Thus, for Sichuan case the government is unable to stimulate the economy by focusing on development of the construction industry in the short run. Instead, in order to promote long -term development of the national economy it could implement stable and healthy development policies for the construction industry.