电力系统可靠性评估的不确定性数学模型探讨

Study on uncertainty math models of power system reliability evaluation

介绍不确定性数学理论及其在电力系统可靠性分析中的应用。提出了基于不确定性数学理论的电力系统可靠性评估方法的总体框架:用相匹配的不确定性数表示原始参数;用随机性处理故障状态发生及状态转移等随机事件和过程;用模糊数学、灰色数学和未确知数学或其综合处理具有模糊性、灰色性和未确知性的参量、事件和过程;最后把不确定性数代入计算可靠性指标。该框架包含了常规的可靠性评估方法、模糊可靠性评估方法和基于区间分析等理论的方法,给出了可以提供更多信息量且计算量不大的可靠性评估方法。将综合处理随机信息、模糊信息、灰色信息和未确知信息的不确定性数学理论应用于电力系统可靠性分析,为建立更合理的电力系统可靠性模型和评估方法提供了一种新途径。

Uncertainty mathematics and its applications to reliability analysis of power systems are introduced. The framework of power system reliability evaluation method based on uncertainty mathematics is presented. Original parameters are represented by the matching uncertain parameters. The random events and processes such as fault state generation and statu transfer are processed by randomicity. The fuzzy,grey and unascertained parameters,events and processes are processed by fuzzy mathematics,grey mathematics,unascertained mathematics and their combination. The uncertain parameters are introduced into reliability index calculation. The framework consists of the existing methods of probability,fuzzy mathematics and interval analysis,and supports reliability evaluation with wider information and less calculation. Uncertainty mathematics provides a novel approach to establishment of reasonable model of power system reliability evaluation,which deals with the random,fuzzy,grey and unascertained information in an integrated way.