电力工业煤炭消费量的计量经济模型预测研究

Forecast and research of the econometric model for electric power industry's coal consumption

通过分析电力工业煤炭消费量与电力工业发展之间的关系,构建出火电发电量与煤炭消费之间的计量经济学模型,改善了部门消费预测法由于误差累计导致预测精度不高的缺点,提高了预测精度;通过所建的计量经济模型,预测在最近的4年内电煤消费量将以每年接近1亿t的速度增加。

Through analysing the relationship between coal consumption in electric industry and the development of electric industry,this paper built a econometrics model of the relationship between thermal power generation and coal consumption.This model improved the shortcoming of section consumption forecasting method that error accumulation resulted in low forecasting precision.By the econometrics model,this paper forecasted that in 4 years power generation coal's consumption will increased by 1 hundred million tons per annum.