陕西关中未来5～6月份降水趋势预测

Prediction Trend of Precipitation in the Central Shaanxi from May to June

采用小波分析与毛毛虫-谱分析法相结合的方法,以树木年轮为代用资料,对关中地区未来20 a的5～6月份降水趋势进行预测.结果表明,5～6月份,降水序列20 a周期成分在2005年达到谷值后逐渐上升,在2016年达到峰值;9～10 a周期成分表现为降水的主要趋势在2013年和2023年达到谷值,在2010年和2019年达到峰值.从峰值到谷值的下降速度较快,时间为3 a;从谷值到峰值上升平缓,需要6～7 a.

The tree growth-ring proxy data are employed to analyze the precipitation trend by Wavelet analysis and singular spectrum analysis method in the central Shaanxi area from May to June in next 20 years. The results show that in this area, quasi-20a period of precipitation is minimum in 2005,and maximum in 2016. quasi-10a period of precipitation is base, minimum is in 2013 and 2023,and maximum is in 2010 and 2019.