基于人口和土地利用的城市新区交通生成预测模型

Trip generation forecasting model of new district based on urban population and land use

针对城市新区背景下传统交通生成预测方法的不足,以城市人口土地利用交通需求相关关系为机理,建立了基于人口和土地利用的城市新区交通生成预测模型.苏州新区应用实例表明:对不同用地类型所引起的不同目的的出行,分别建立出行产生和吸引预测模型,能够使交通需求与新区土地利用特性直接相关;通过确定回程出行比例的方法,实现了新区内部交通小区出行产生和吸引量的平衡;通过引入区位势因子,进一步反映出新区内部不同交通小区由于土地利用强度和交通可达性的不同所引起的交通需求差异.

Because of the deficiency of conventional traffic generation forecasting method for the urban new district, a new model, based on the mechanism of urban population-land use-traffic demand, is established. The application of this new model in Suzhou New District indicates that traffic demand and land use feature in new urban area can be directly correlated when each type of land use has such a generating and attracting model which corresponds to its very own trip purpose. And a balance between traffic generation and attraction within new urban area is achieved by confirming the return trip factor. Finally, after introducing a location potential coefficient into this model, the inner difference of traffic demand characteristics among traffic zones, caused by the level of land use inensity and traffic accessibility is reflected.