我国财政政策作用机制与经济周期波动的相依性检验

Testing for the Dependence of Fiscal Policy Effects on Business Cycles in China' s Economy

财政政策一直是我国宏观经济调控的主要方式,并在需求管理中发挥了重要作用。本文定量描述和检验了我国财政政策工具与经济周期波动之间的相依性,在结构VAR模型中刻画了财政政策的作用和反馈过程,并发现我国财政政策操作的相机选择性依赖经济周期的阶段性。在目前我国进入新经济周期的态势下,应当及时调整财政政策的期限结构和政策工具,加强财政政策与货币政策的政策组合作用,以保持经济快速稳定增长。

Fiscal policy has always been the main policy which is implemented in macro-economic control, and it has played an important role in rapid economic growth. This paper describes and tests quantitatively the interdependence of fiscal policy on the business cycles, and investigates the transmission mechanism of fiscal policy and its feedback rules in the structural VAR models. It is found that the fiscal policy is made by discretion in some contents and depended on the phase of business cycle. In current situation that China is in a new business cycle, we should extend the term structure of fiscal policy and adjust the corresponding policy tools, and pay more attentions to the combinations of fiscal policy with monetary policy, which will helpful to rapid and stable growth of the economy.