促进我国经济增长的最优财政支出规模研究

A Research on the Optunal Size of Fiscal Expenditure in Promoting Economic Growth

本文首先对公共支出与经济增长的相关理论进行了详细综述,认为财政支出规模对经济增长的影响从根本上取决于其对总产出的边际效应,并利用生产函数框架进行实证研究。研究发现,我国公共支出有利于经济增长,其边际生产力显著大于1;进一步考察发现,如果就财政支出而言,中国的最优政府支出规模应该是20.0%;但是,如果把对象扩大到公共支出领域,中国的最优政府支出规模应该是27.9%。而实际上2004年的财政支出规模为20.8%,这说明我国的财政支出规模仍然没有达到最优,我国当前增加财政对改革、发展和稳定的支持力度还应当继续。

This paper first reviews relevant theories on fiscal expenditure and economic growth, and points out that the marginal output affected by fiscal expenditure plays an important role in economic growth. Then a positive research is made using the production function. The empirical outcome shows that China' s fiscal expenditure is helpful to economic growth and its marginal productivity is well above 1. It is also found that China' s optimal fiscal expenditure size should be 20.0% . If the object is widened to the whole public expenditure, this paper finds that China' s optimal fiscal expenditure size should be 27.9 % . But the actual fiscal expenditure scale is only 20.8 % by 2004, which shows that China' s fiscal expenditure is under optimal situation and that there should be more fiscal support to reform, development and stability.