国内几种土地利用变化模型述评

Review on Several Domestic Land Use Change Models

研究目的:增进土地利用变化机制和原因的理解;预测未来土地利用变化的速率,支持政府制定相关政策。研究方法:文献资料法和对比分析法。研究结果:土地利用变化模型在土地利用驱动力的模型化、土地利用数据的融合、土地利用变化的驱动力尺度、土地利用变化的自然反馈机制模型化等方面存在不足。研究结论:人文、尺度及地域因素是未来土地利用变化模型需要考虑的重要内容。

The purpose of this study is to make better understanding of the mechanism and cause of land use change deeply, anticipate the land use change pattern in the future, and make relevant policies. Methods of documentation and comparison were employed. The study point out the drawback of current land use change models, that is, how to model the land use driving force, how to syncretize the land use data, how to analyze the scale of the driving force and the natural feedback mechanism of land use change. It is concluded that human factors, scales and regional factors need to be considered in future land use change models.