城镇劳动供求形势与趋势分析

Analysis of Trends of Urban Labor Supply and Demand in China

人口加速老龄化是中国人口快速转变的代价之一,城镇劳动供求形势也将因此出现重要变化。文章运用最新的人口预测结果以及分省的相关数据,分析并预测了城镇劳动供求的趋势。总的来看,劳动供给压力正在逐渐减小,而劳动需求随着经济增长和结构改善正迅速增加,就业的总量供求矛盾正在得到缓解,但就业的结构性矛盾正在变得越来越突出,如何提高劳动者的知识和技能水平已经成为解决就业问题的关键所在。

As one of the consequences of the rapid demographic transition in China, the accelerating process of population aging is changing the relationship between labor supply and labor demand in urban China. Using data from the latest population projection and the corresponding provincial data,this paper analyzes the trend of urban labor supply and demand. As the pressures in labor supply are decreasing, it is expected that the employment problem by nature would be more structural than quantitative in the coming decade. How to improve the skills of labors is therefore more critical to reduce unemployment as well as the economic development in China.