江苏省交通事故时间分布分析

Time Distribution Analysis of Traffic Accident in Jiangsu Province

根据江苏省有关交通事故数据,利用统计方法对交通事故发生的时间特征进行分析.通过分析交通事故年时间分布规律的波峰曲线,得出江苏省交通事故发生数量开始振荡变化,逐年上升的势头有望于近期遏制.通过分析交通事故、月、周、小时时间分布曲线,得出交通事故高峰小时出现在交通量高峰小时之后的9～12h、14～16h,两者不重合.死亡高峰时段(危险时段)多发生在18～21h的3h内.研究结论对不同时间内如何采取不同的安全对策来降低江苏省交通事故具有指导作用.

The characters of time when traffic accident happens are studied by using statistic methods to analyse some traffic accident data in Jiangsu province. The trend of traffic accident growing year by year showed that it will be under control in the near future, based on the analysis of the yearly time distribution of the traffic accident in Jiangsu province. The conclusion, that the peak hour accident follows after the peak hour flow to appear 9：00 -12：00 and 14：00-16：00 in day time, is deduced from analysis of monthly and weekly time distribution of traffic accident. The peak period of death （the period of dangerous time） appears 18：00-21：00 at night, is deduced from the analysis of time distribution about hourly traffic accident, providing guidance for how to take distinct safety countermeasure in different period in order to reduce traffic accident in Jiangsu province.