中国收入差距的走势和影响因素分析

Income Inequality in China and Its Influential Factors

中国收入差距在过去20年中持续扩大,对经济的持续增长、社会公正与稳定都提出了挑战。本文通过计量模型检验库兹涅茨曲线在中国是否存在,证明收入差距还有继续上升的明显趋势,但其下降阶段不能确证。同时模型分析发现有一系列因素对收入差距的扩大或缩小有重要影响。这包括经济增长方面的因素、收入再分配和社会保障、公共产品和基础设施,以及制度方面的因素。这说明有可能通过合理的政策调整来控制收入差距的继续扩大。文章讨论了这些发现的政策含义。

Income inequality in China increased rapidly in the past 20 years, which is challenging growth sustainability, social justness and sterility. By testing the hypothesis of existence of ＇ Kuznets curve＇, it is found in this study that income inequality has a trend of further increases in coming future, but no clear sign is found for its decrease in longer future. Meanwhile, econometric analysis indicates a number of variables that have either positive or negative effects on inequality, including variables relating to economic growth, income redistribution and social security systems, provision of public goods and infrastructure, and institutional arrangements. This indicates possibilities of controlling increasing inequality via rational policy adjustments. Policy implications are discussed.