一次很小的汇价调整,一个巨大的结构变革——评人民币汇率改革的深远意义

A Small Exchange Rate Shift, a Big Structural Reform

近期中国对人民币制度进行了改革,表面上看这一改革仅仅是人民币兑美元汇率水平的小幅调整,实际上背后有着深远的意义:一、这次变革将对中国金融体系和经济结构弹性产生巨大影响。日益增强的汇率弹性要求中国将重点转向利率改革,其他配套改革也要协同进行,中国正朝着建立规范的货币政策平台和以市场为基础的宏观经济政策框架迈进。二、人民币与美元的脱钩将为建立亚洲有效的货币联盟开辟道路,使亚洲从美元区中脱离出来。这次改革将成为中国货币政策的独立性改革和亚洲货币联盟形成的转折点。

China＇s recent decision on RMB regime shift may appear to have led to only a modest change in the price of USD/RMB. However, it is of great significance. First, this regime shift is likely to have great impact on the structural flexibility of the Chinese financial system and the economy. The increasing exchange rate flexibility will require greater emphasis on in- terest rate reform. With the necessary reforms to build on this RMB regime shift, China is on the way to establishing monetary orthodoxy, toward a market-based macroeconomic policy framework. Secondly, de-linking the yuan from the dollar could also open the way for Asia＇s effective monetary union to secede from the dollar zone. China＇s yuan regime shift marks an important watershed for both of these developments.