中国人口发展演变趋势的分形分析

Non-linear Fractional R/S Trend Analysis of the China's Population Evolution

文章采用非线性分形理论及分形分析R/S法,对中国人口总数的发展演变特征进行实证分析。结果显示,中国人口发展演变满足赫斯特律,具有明显的分形特征,人口增长在其演变过程中具有明显的持续性规律,人口总数将继续持续增长,这种研究结论与中国人口发展实际情况基本一致。

The paper analyses the features of China's population evolution by using the non-linear fractional theory and the main R/S method of fractional analysis, producing the Hurst index values and fractal dimension values. The result shows that it meets the Hurst principal and there are some obvious fractional characteristics in China's population development. Some ob- vious persistence has been found in this process. The China's total population will continue to grow in the future. This result is in line with actual situation of China's population development.