城市生态经济系统模型构建与分析

Construction and analysis of urban eco-economic system model

根据城市生态经济系统(UrbanEco-economicSystem,UEES)运行规律和系统调控的目标,建立了UEES指标体系.以宁波市为例,采用偏最小二乘算法构建了UEES模型.本例中,模型的Q2cum值为0·996,表明其具有较好的稳定性和预测能力.计算结果表明,到2007年、2012年和2020年,宁波市国内生产总值将分别达到2588×108元、3250×108元、5261×108元;万元国内生产总值能耗、城市化水平与产业结构是影响经济规模扩大的主要因素,万元工业产值废水排放量和SO2排放量与经济规模呈显著的负相关关系.在此基础上,提出了宁波生态市建设过程中经济发展的若干建议.

The indicator system of urban eco-economic system （UEES） was established according to the economic principles and the system control. Ningbo City was taken as an example to develop a model of UEES by using the partial least square regression. The cross-validated Qcmu^2 value for the UEES model was 0.996, indicating good stability and predictive capability. The results showed that, in 2007,2012 and 2020, gross domestic product （GDP） value in Ningbo city would be 2 588 ×10^8 yuan, 3 250×10^8 yuan and 5 261 ×10^8 yuan, respectively. Energy consumption, urbanization and industry structure were the most important factors affecting the extension of the economic scale. The amounts of wastewater and SO2 discharged per ten thousand yuan industrial products had a remarkable negative correlation with the economic scale. On the basis of this study, several suggestions were presented for the economic development in the construction of Ningbo ecocity.