TBM掘进速率预测模型的比较

Comparison of TBM advance rate prediction models

TBM钻掘隧道,对于地质状况非常敏感,营造厂在选择机器及投标时TBM的掘进速率预测是关键的,错误或误判可能会有严重的后果.文章将采用QTBM、NTNU及Alber三种预测模型预测曾文水库越域引水工程计划--东引水隧洞采用TBM挖掘所需工期及工程所需费用,并进行比较.NTNU模型与Alber模型所预测的掘进速率介于600～800 m/月之间,且不同的围岩所预测的掘进速率变化不大,即围岩性质对掘进速率不敏感,切刀推进力对掘进速率也不敏感;QTBM模型所预测的掘进速率变化很大,切刀推进力对掘进速率敏感;NTNU及Alber预测模型不适合用来预测有突水及严重挤压状况之TBM掘进速率,对于岩石坚硬但破碎之围岩亦不适合.

TBM advance rate in rock is very sensitive to geological conditions. TBM advance rate prediction is crucial for contractors when selecting equipments and tendering, for mistakes or misjudgment can bring about serious consequences. Using QTBM, NTNU and Alber models, the paper predicts the timing and cost for Zeng Wen Reservoir water diversion project - TBM excavation of eastern tunnel. Advance rates predicted by NTNU and Alber models are between 600 - 800 m/mon and a bit varied in different rock masses. Advance rate is insensitive to the performance of rock masses and cutter thrusts. However, advance rate predicted by QTBM has a large variation in different rock masses, since the cutter thrust is sensitive to the advance rate. NTNU and Alber models are not adaptable to predict advance rate in rocks with water outburst or with serious squeezing and also in broken hard rocks.