钱塘江河口考虑泥沙淤积的水资源可利用量研究

Allowable water resources development of Qiantang Estuary under considering sediment deposition

探讨了用于分析河口冲淤与径流响应关系的三种方法:河相关系法、一维动床数值模拟和基于实测资料的多元回归分析方法。以钱塘江河口防洪允许的淤积增加量为限制条件,采用依据实测资料及动床数值模拟结果建立的多元回归模型,计算得到钱塘江河口的可利用水资源量不得超过闻家堰断面多年平均水资源量的20%。研究成果为钱塘江河口水资源开发利用提供了科学依据,计算方法和计算思路可供其它河口参考。

This paper compared three methods to analysis the influence of runoff change to estuarine fluvial process, including hydraulic geometry relation method, 1D mobile-bed model and multivariate statistical analysis based on observed data. The multiple regression model based on observed data and 1D mobile-bed model was adopted to calculate the maximum development amount of water resources in Qiantang Estuary, and permissive deposition increment was determined as the limiting condition according to design scheme of the embankment along Qiantang estuary. Results show that as to Qiantang Estuary, the maximum development amount of water resources is no more than 20 percent of the total water resources. The speculation of this paper could be the reference to other estuaries.