路径依赖与中国利用外资的调整对策

Path Dependence of Chinese Foreign Capital Utilization and Countermeasures

在混沌理论和路径依赖的框架下，初始状态决定了后期的制度演进，而内生因素又会形成对局部均衡的困守．由此必须进行不断的路径选择和调整。以这一模型对中国的利用外资状况进行分析，研究结果表明，由于四个“悖论”的存在。新时期中国经济增长对外资的依赖本质上已变成一种强度路径依赖，必须进行相应的路径调整；而针对阻碍路径调整的众多内生因素，应采取渐进式、区域化的外资政策调整方案。

Under the frame of economic analysis jurisprudence concerning Chaos theory and path dependence, the initial state decided the upper institutional evolution and endogenous factors formed the plight in partial equilibrium, so we must take a continual route choosing and path adjustment. After an analysis on the foreign capital utilizing in China based on this model, this paper finds that Chinese economic dependence on foreign capital had become a intense path dependence because of four theoretical paradoxes and must give a path adjustment; Aimed at the endogenous factors which baffled path adjustment, this paper puts forward a gradual and regional modulation scheme on foreign capital utilizing policy in China.