昆虫种群动态模拟模型

Review on insect population dynamics simulation models

昆虫是动物界中最大的类群,与人类有着密切的利害关系。对昆虫的数量预测与符合经济和生态规律的管理,一直都被国内外列入重点研究课题。种群动态模拟是害虫管理中重要的基础工作。近十年来,关于昆虫种群动态模型的理论和实验研究进展迅速。现分别从单种种群和多种种群两个方面对国内外近些年来昆虫种群动态模拟模型的研究进展进行了概括和总结。单种种群从两个方面阐述:一是最基本的种群动态模拟模型Log istic方程的研究成果,包括方程的修正、参数的拟合与最优捕获策略等;另一个方面是对种群动态模拟常用的矩阵模型的概述,主要介绍不等期年龄组、矩阵维数的变化、矩阵维数与历期的关系、个体之间的发育差异以及发育速率差异等等对昆虫种群动态模型的影响。多种群主要从建模和模型应用两个部分对国内外研究成果进行综述。最后,对种群动态模拟模型研究的发展方向做了深入地讨论,即在原有的数据采集工作的基础上,使用面向对象程序设计语言,把各种要素包括各种物种及各种环境条件抽象成类,用消息传递来表示昆虫种群内个体与个体、昆虫种群与环境之间的相互作用,再结合先进的数学算法,建立一个直观的、操作简单的昆虫种群动态模型库,使模型结构与现实世界有最大的相似性。这样就可以实现昆虫种群动态的可视化、立体化、实时化和精确化的监测及预测。

Insects, the largest group of animals in the world, are closely related with human beings. Quantitative forecasting of insect population dynamics and rational management of insect populations, based on economic and ecologic laws, are always ranked highly in scientific and technological researches. Simulation of insect dynamics is the prerequisite base of pest management. In the last ten years, both theoretical and experimental researches on simulation models of insect population dynamics have been progressing very rapidly either in China or overseas. The paper just makes efforts to review these researches from two regards, single species and multiple species. For the first regard, two aspects are reviewed. One is on the so-called Logistic equation, which is the simplest model to simulate insect population dynamics. The research on Logistic equation focuses mainly on modification of the basic equation under new conditions, parameter fitting to experimental data, the optimal strategies for harvesting insects by the Logistic law, and so on. Another aspect is on matrix models, which are frequently used to simulate insect population dynamics. Studies on matrix models focus on the influence of some problems on insects population dynamics. The problems mainly include the optimal dimension of matrix, relationship between the dimension and the development period of insects, differences in individual growth, differences in the development rates, and so on. For the second regard, also two aspects are reviewed, on modeling of population dynamics for multiple species and on application of the models. Finally, the future direction of researches on simulation of insect population dynamics is discussed in detail. That is, automatic logging of experimental data should be realized to replace artificial data collection to large extent. Then the data can be used to build a database of insect population dynamics for the development of simulation models toward their visual and convenient operations. This modeling database can be developed by visual programming language, in addition to advanced algorithms. All kinds of elements such as divers species and various environmental conditions can be abstracted as ＂classes＂. And relations between individuals within an insect population and between insect population and the environment can be expressed by the message delivering. The model database can make the monitoring and forecasting of insect population dynamics be visual, more simple and precise.