欧元区扩大前景

The Future Enlargement of the Euro Area

2004年5月1日,欧盟又吸纳了十个新成员国。新成员国在入盟时已经承诺,一旦达到加入货币联盟的各项标准,将立即引入欧元。本文试图分析欧元区扩大后,由于各成员国宏观经济基本面差异增大而对货币政策所产生的影响,并采用泰勒规则作为分析框架。经验分析的结果表明,新成员国很可能面临通货膨胀的压力,而这将由老成员国所面临的经济紧缩效应来平衡。

On the May 1 of 2004, the European Union has grown by 10 new member states. By joining the Union, the new members have committed themselves to introduce the Euro as soon as the criteria for joining monetary union are fulfilled. The present paper addresses the consequences for monetary policy that result from the increasing heterogeneity in macroeconomic fundamentals, which is a consequence of enlargement. The analytical framework applied is the Taylor rule. The empirical findings indicate a possible inflationary pressure on the new member states, which is balanced by a contractionary effect on the old member states.