摘要
Using probit analyses,this paper identifies those risk factors that have an influence on the occurrence of debt rescheduling for five Asian countries that were badly hit by the Asian financial crisis of 1997～1998. Our results indicate that the real growth of GDP,the ratio of public debt to GDP,the amortization rate and changes in the real exchange rate were among the important factors that characterize the probability of debt rescheduling in Indonesia, Malaysia,the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand for 1980～2001. Our investigation also reveals the limitations of using probit analyses to study country risk.
Using probit analyses, this paper identifies those risk factors that have an influence on the occurrence of debt rescheduling for five Asian countries that were badly hit by the Asian financial crisis of 1997 - 1998. Our results indicate that the real growth of GDP,the ratio of public debt to GDP,the amortization rate and changes in the real exchange rate were among the important factors that characterize the probability of debt rescheduling in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand for 1980 - 2001. Our investigation also reveals the limitations of using probit analyses to study country risk.
出处
《统计研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2005年第10期50-56,共7页
Statistical Research
