海平面上升对珠江三角洲经济和环境的可能影响及其防御措施

POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISING ON THE ENVIRONMENT AND ECONOMIC CONSTRUCTION IN ZHUJIANG RIVER DELTA AND THEIR COUNTERMEASURES

主要根据ＩＰＣＣ［１］提出的假定未来海平面上升３０，６５，１００ｃｍ，对在现有防潮设施下给珠江三角洲地区环境及经济建设所造成的可能影响进行了计算和分析，其中包括淹没低地，风暴潮及洪涝灾害加剧，海岸侵蚀，咸水入侵和生态环境变化以及经济损失等。并以１９９０年该地区的经济发展为基数，用数学模型对２０００年和２０３０年的经济进行了初步预测，并据此估算出２０００年、２０３０年出现历史最高潮位、百年一遇高潮位时可能造成的经济损失。同时，为了把海平面上升的影响降到最低，文中还提出了提高防洪排涝能力，加高加固防洪墙，整治河流以增加泄洪能力，加强城市规划以消除内涝威胁等相应的防御措施。

The paper mainly conducts calculations and analyses on possible effects of future sea level rising by 30, 65 and 100cm in the environment and economic construction in Zhujiang river delta with available protection facilities against tide, including inundation of low-lying land, acceleration of storm surges and flood disasters, coastal erosion, salt water intrusion, as well as changes in the ecological environment and social-economic losses, etc. Therefore, to minimize the effects of sea level rising, the paper suggests the corresponding preventive measures and strategies, such as enhancing the capability of flood control and draining of flooded fields, hightening and consolidating flood control walls, realigning rivers to strenghthen flood discharge capability, improving urban planning to eliminate the threats of flooding inside the city, etc.