云南盛夏大雨物理量因子的选取及效果检验

A Selection of the Physics Factors and a Check of the Impact on Heavy Rain in Yunnan in Summer

从物理量因子场与云南盛夏（7－8月）大雨作为预报量之间的相关系数计算入手，通过相关场分析来提取因子信息，经过不同组合试验，选出新的预报因子。检验表明，新的组合因子与预报量之间的相关性有明显提高。由此而建立的预报方程有较好的历史拟合率和较稳定的实际预报能力。

Analyses of the coherence between the physics factors and the heavy rain suggested the simple method of selecting predictors and sampled the history and the data in the sutnmer of 1994-1995. The results show that the ability of prediction model is strong.