江淮稻区稻纵卷叶螟预测专家系统

FORECASTING EXPERT SYSTEM OF CNAPHALOCROCIS MEDINALIS GUENEFE IN YANGTZE AND HUAIHE RIVER RICE AREAS

利用江淮稻区３个代表性地点通州、凤阳和歙县的多年历史资料，研制了稻纵卷叶螟预测专家系统。该系统综合了专家经验预测、中期数学模型预测和知识库推理预测的结果，可以提前１～２个月对稻纵卷叶螟不同代次的发生期、发生量作出分析推断，并给出简单的决策措施。

Historical data from three representative counties of Tongzhou, Fengyang and Shexian in Yangtze and Huaihe river rice areas were used to build a forecasting expert system of rice leaf roller. The system includes three parts which are experience judge of specialist, prediction of mathematical models and deductive results of knowledge base. It can give peak date and adult number one to two months ahead of the practical occurrence of different generations and peaks of rice leaf roller. Simple management decisions were also supplied.