历史认知与中日政经关系:影响测度与博弈分析

Cognition of History and Sino-Japanese Political-Economic Relations: Influence, Measurement, and Game Theory Analysis

历史认知问题是影响中日关系的焦点和根本问题,现有文献普遍认识到历史认知问题的重要性,但仅限于定性描述。为测度历史认知问题的影响,在SAS统计软件包中做Spearman等级相关分析,①结果表明历史认知问题严重损害双边政治关系,对双边经贸关系的影响则以2000年为界,此前非常明显,此后非常微弱。在测度的基础上,用博弈论的框架对历史认知问题进行分析,结论是只有促进双方的交流和理解,从而改变双边的博弈收益,中日历史认知问题的僵局才能被打破。

The cognition of history has been the focal point in Sino-Japanese relations. There have been many papers reiterating the importance of historical cognition, but there have been only limited qualitative descriptions. In order to measure its influence, the author introduces the statistical analysis model of Spearman’s rank correlation in the SAS program package. The result shows that the issue of historical cognition seriously damaged the bilateral political relationship, while its influence on the bilateral economic and trade relationship was prominent before 2000 and slight thereafter. On such a basis, the author conducts a further analysis within the framework of game theory. The author concludes that the deadlock in Sino-Japanese relations on the cognition of history can only be broken by enhancing bilateral exchanges and understanding, thereby altering the gains of both sides in the game.