简单系统决策与复杂系统决策:对决策范式中分化和转换的一种理解

Simple System Decision & Complex System Decision: A Comprehension on the Diversity and Shift of Decision Paradigm

讨论了由规范决策(NP)到描述决策(DP)研究范式的分化问题。基于复杂性思维,分析了简单系统决策和复杂系统决策的区别;指出:基于NP/DP发展起来的决策理论实际上只对应简单决策系统范围。探讨了面向复杂决策系统(CDS)的新决策研究范式:复杂性范式(CP)的内涵;并把CP与NP/DP做了比较,指出在信念、学科基础、决策范围、方法论、理论体系上的一系列区别;最后提出了CP的体系架构。

First, we discuss the decision paradigm diversity from Normative Paradigm （NP） to Descriptive Paradigm （DP）. Then based on the complexity thinking, we analyses the difference between Simple Decision System （SDS） and Complex Decision System（CDS）, pointing out that the decision theory based on NP/DP is only effective within the scope of SDS. Further in this paper, we put forward a new conception： Complex Paradigm （CP）, and systemically compares it with NP/DP inseveral points such as faith, discipline background, scope of application, methodology, etc. Finally we give out the structure frame of CP.