房室模型(Compartment Model)在权益变动分析中的应用

The Application of Compartment Model to the Study of Analyzing Equities'Alteration

本文将负债和业主权益看成是房室模型中的两间房室,将负债与业主权益的变动问题转化为房室模型的求解问题,并以会计理论与经济学理论为依据,设定假设,使两房室模型中的6个参数求解成为可能,从而发现了权益的时间分布规律。最后本文利用一家上市公司会计报表的历史数据,验证了对权益变动建立房室模型进行求解及预测的可行性。

This paper regards the liabilities and the owners＇ equities as two different compartments of Comparment Model, and converts the problem of equities＇alteration to the problem of .solving the two-compartment model. Based on the theories in accounting and economics, the author puts forward a serial of assumptions, which makes it possible to .solve the two-compartment model with six parameters,and finds the distribution law of equities＇ alteration as a result. At last, the historical data of a public company＇s financial statements are illustrated to prove the feasibility of prediction by using Compartment Model.