20世纪90年代以来阿根廷宏观经济长期失衡的原因

On the causes of the long-term macroeconomic imbalance in Argentina since 1990s

阿根廷在实施《自由兑换法》计划期间,宏观经济一直处于失衡状态。其主要原因在于,当阿根廷面临持续性的经常项目赤字多和高失业率相组合的“米德冲突”时,政府由于采取激进的资本账户自由化和盯住美元的政策,而不是采用相应多的政策工具来调控宏观经济的平衡,致使财政政策陷入两难境地。在未来的改革中,阿根廷应该实行资本账户管制和管理浮动汇率制度的组合,稳健地搭配使用财政政策和货币政策。

Argentine macroeconomic situations were always unbalanced since The 1991 Convertibility Law was implemented. When Argentina confronted with the combination of durative current account deficits and high unemployment rate, i.e. , the classical Meade Conflict, the government was short of enough policies to manage macroeconomic balance because of its complete free capital mobile and hard fixed exchange rate regime policies. Therefore, the fiscal policy got in a dilemma. In the future, the government should adopt the combination of capital control and managed floating exchange rate regime and cooperate fiscal policy and monetary policy well to manage macroeconomic internal balance and external balance.