应用指数曲线预测伤寒副伤寒疫情

Prediction on epidemic of typhoid and paratyphoid with the exponential curve

[目的] 分析松江区1997～2004年伤寒、副伤寒历史疫情资料,建立外推预测模型对其疫情进行定量预测. [方法] 对伤寒、副伤寒发病率时间序列(1997～2003)采用指数曲线拟合,并对2004年伤寒、副伤寒疫情作出预测. [结果] 指数曲线预测方程为y=e2.110600-0.300914X;|t|>t0.05, P<0.05,预测方程有意义;R2(判定系数)接近于1,表明预测误差较小;经拟合优度检验∑χ2<χ20.95(6), P>0.95,表明伤寒、副伤寒实际发病率与预测发病率间差异无显著性(包括对2004年发病率预测值检验). [结论] 对发病率时间序例呈单调下降且影响发病的主要因素保持稳定的一类传染病,采用指数曲线拟合进行疫情预测,具有可行性与可操作性,在实际工作中值得应用.

[ Objective] To analyzing the incidence data of typhoid and paratyphoid in Songjiang District from 1997 to 2004, and building up prediction model. [ Methods] Exponential curve was employed in studying time series of typhoid and paratyphoid （ 1997 - 2003 ） and incidence rate of year 2004 was predicted based on the prediction model. [ Results] Prediction equation of exponential curve was y=e^2.110600-0.300914X. The prediction equation did work by means of ＂t＂ testing. The determination coefficients was almost one, which showed the least prediction error . By fitting optimization test; there were no statistically significant differences between the factual incidence rate of typhoid and paratyphoid and the incidence rate in theory. [ Condusion] It was feasible and practical to use the exponential curve fitting to predict the infectious disease which maintained the sta- bility of influence factors of catching the disease and whose time series of the incidence rate decreased monotonically.