基于时间特征指数的水源地突发性污染事件应急评估方法研究

TCI-based emergency assessment method for accidental pollution events in areas with important water source

应急评估及其方法研究是建立水源地突发性污染事件应急机制的关键环节之一。在综合评价现有相关应急评估方法的基础上,根据水源地突发性污染事件的风险源不确定性、受体易损性以及需快速反应性等特征,提出了对突发性污染事件的危害影响程度进行应急评估的”时间特征指数”方法。选取了泄漏物质危害性、泄漏量、泄漏位置、流速和风速5项评估指标,计算得出能够反映突发性污染事件对取水口危害威胁性的综合指数。对上海市黄浦江上游水源地一起突发性污染事件进行了案例评估,结果表明该方法具有一定的科学性和可行性。

The paper intends to introduce a new method on emergency assessment for accidental pollution events in the area with water sources. As is known, it is one of the key points of consummating emergency mechanism for accidental pollution events in the areas of water sources. The current related emergency assessment methods are independently based on the qualitative or quantitative, both of which have obvious disadvantages to assess the emergency events. The requirements of such emergency assessment methods are expected to be quick in response, easy in calculation, and accurate in results. According to the particular characteristics of accidental pollution event in the area of water sources, such as indeterminacy of risk source, vulnerability of risk receptor, and the need of fast response, a method called TCI （Time Characteristic Index） is proposed which may lead to a quick identification and quick ranking of the pollution influenre degree, particularly for the water intakes in the water source area. After quick selection and comparison, assessment indexes would be chosen for assessment, including the harmfulness of the leaking pollutants, the quantity of the leaking materials, the leaking location, the velority of flow and wind, etc. Each index can be fortified based on its particular rule, and output in the form of a numerical value to be calculated in a mathematical function. The numerical result of the function was in correspondence with a fixed lever which can reflect the influence degree of the pollution to the intake or some other sensitive sites in the area. Finally, the assessment method （TCI） can be applied in a typical case that occurred in the upstream water source area of Shanghai Huangpu River. The results of assessment are deemed to be in consistency with the reality, and the method has also proved to be scientific and well-feasible.