基于时间序列分析的地表温度变化过程探讨

Time Series Analysis and Temporal Scale Effect Study of Land Surface Temperature

地表温度是地表与大气相互作用过程中的最重要的物理学参量之一。然而地表温度是一个动态的热平衡参量,受到地表能量平衡过程特别是大气湍流的影响,是一个动态变化的时间序列过程参量。为研究地表温度受大气湍流影响的机理和规律,选择西藏当雄和北京顺义地区为试验区,开展野外观测试验,对两个试验区的大气湍流通量数据和地表温度连续观测数据进行时间序列分析。定义了一个表征地表温度变化特征的参量——地表温度变化特征量,并通过时间序列分析的方法,分别对两个试验区的数据,建立了传递函数模型,并通过系数的置信区间讨论了两地模型的有效相等性。

Land surface temperature is one important parameter in the interaction of atmosphere and land surface, which is a time series variable affected by surface energy balance and atmospheric turbulence. The relationship between land surface temperature and turbulence flux was analyzed using field experiment data of Dangxiong, Tibet and Shunyi, Beijing respectively. After defined a characteristic parameter of land surface temperature, the transfer function models were set up based on time series analysis and the effective equivalency of the two models were discussed by using the confidence interval of the coefficients.