余庆县稻纵卷叶螟第四代幼虫发生期预测模型研究

The Forecast Model for the Occurrence of Forth Generation of Larva of Leaf Roller of Rice(Cnaphalocrocis medinalis)in Yuqing County

为探讨稻纵卷叶螟(Cnaphalocis medinalis Guenee.)第四代幼虫发生期的预测方法,通过对1993-2004年贵州省余庆县稻纵卷叶螟的资料研究分析得出:第三代的低龄幼虫盛发期(x)与第四代的低龄幼虫盛发期(y)的回归式为=3.1293+0.8776x±Sy=2.951,r=0.730＞r(0.01,10)=0.708* *;第四代田间成虫主峰期(x)与第四代一龄幼虫发生期(y)的回归式为=-1.2483+0.6729x±Sy=2.472,r=0.923＞r(0.01,10)=0.708* *.利用回归式模型预测第四代低龄幼虫盛发期和第四代一龄幼虫发生期,其方法简便,结果较为准确.

The data from 1993-2004 of rice leaf folder in Yuqing county were analyzed for discovering the occurrence period of 4th generation larva, the regression equation for the occurrence of the 3rd and 4th generation larva is y=3. 1293＋0. 8776x±Sy=2. 951,r=0. 730〉r（0.01.10） =0. 708^＊＊ , the regression equation for the peak stage of 4th generation of adults in the field and 4th generation larva isy=-1.2483＋0.6729x±Sy=2.472,r=0.923〉r（0.01,10）=0.708^＊＊. It is easy and accurate to forecast the peak stage of 4th generation of adult and the 4th generation of larva by using the regression model.