中国民航发展与国民经济增长关系的实证分析

Empirical research on the relationship between the development of China′s civil aviation and economic growth

半个世纪以来,中国的航空运输业在曲折中不断发展壮大,中国民航发展与GDP增长的关系以及由此引发的种种疑问倍受理论界与产业界关注.本文运用现代计量经济学的协整理论来检验民航发展和GDP增长之间的协整关系,并且建立误差修正模型寻求二者之间短期动态变化和长期均衡关系,利用格兰杰因果检验考察二者之间的因果关系,最后给出了结论和建议.

From last half century. China＇ s civil aviation transportation industry has developed deviously. The relationship between the development of civil aviation and economic growth and all kinds of doubt arisen from the relation are the focuses in the fields of beth academia and industry. This paper studies the relationship between the development of civil aviation andeconomic growth byemploying the approaches of cointegration theou. And the nestablishes error correction models to look for the short-term dynamic change and long-term equilibrium. In the end, this paper uses Granger causalitv test to explore causality relationship between them, then gives the conclusion and suggestion.