青岛市生活垃圾量的关联度分析与灰色模型预测

Factor Analysis and Grey Model Predication of Domestic Refuse Yields in Qingdao City

运用关联度分析法,定量分析了影响青岛市生活垃圾产生量的主要内在因子,提出了利用环境教育等外在因素的控制对策.并运用灰色系统理论建立了该市垃圾产生量的GM(1,1)预测模型,对青岛市生活垃圾未来产量进行了预测,结果均符合一级精度,为青岛市环境规划管理提供定量依据.

Based on the statistical data of domestic refuse yields from 1992 to 2001 in Qingdao city, the method of grey relative analysis was used to study the vital factors which affecting refuse yields quantitatively and advanced the control policy of increscent yields with environmental education. A single grey model GM（1,1 ） was established to forecast the domestic refuse. The prediction precision of these models was tested by residual-revision method to be feasible and valid as followed. The prediction can provide quantificational foundation for environmental programming and management of Qingdao city.