市场择时理论的中国适用性——基于1998--2003年上市公司的实证分析

A Test of the Market Timing Theory in China--econometric evidence from the Chinese listed companies 1998～2003

自2002年Baker和Murgler明确提出市场择时理论以来,传统资本结构理论的解释力度受到一定程度的质疑,国外学者围绕这一新兴的资本结构理论展开激烈的争论.文章运用1998年1月1日～2003年12月31日间中国沪深两市IPO公司财务数据试图第一次较为全面地检验市场择时理论在中国的适用性.实证结果表明在样本期内中国上市公司确实存在着股票融资和债务融资的市场择时行为;债务融资的市场择时行为并不显著影响中国上市公司的资本结构,而股票融资的市场择时行为短期内显著影响公司的资本结构;股票融资的市场择时行为不具有持久影响资本结构的效应,总的说来,市场择时理论并不适用于中国的上市公司.

Since the market timing theory was clearly proposed by Baker and Murgler in 2002, the explaining power of the traditional capital structure theories has been doubted and many disputes over this new capital structure theory have also come out. This paper uses the financial data of IPO listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets between 1998 and 2003 to examine the suitability of this new theory in China. The econometric evidence amplifies that the Chinese listed companies follow the pattern of market timing in the form of stock and debt financing; debt financing does not influence the capital structure of the Chinese listed companies significantly while stock financing does; the market timing behavior of stock financing does not have lasting influence on the capital structure, the market timing theory is not suitable for the Chinese listed companies.