财政支出与广义货币关系的协整分析及其政策含义

Cointegration Analysis of Fiscal Spending with Money Supply and Its Policy Implications

文章利用协整分析讨论了财政支出与广义货币的相互关系,发现在1978～2002年间,中国的财政支出和广义货币具有二阶差分平稳的特征,二者之间存在显著的协整关系.财政支出的变动速度是广义货币变动速度的Granger因,但不能说广义货币变动速度是财政支出变动速度的Granger因.财政支出的短期变化对广义货币的短期变化影响较大,并且是同方向的.广义货币供给的增长速度具有一定惯性,且具有向长期值的自我恢复功能.财政支出的增长速度并不具有自我恢复功能,这意味着政府应对财政支出施加一定约束,以避免财政支出在经济过热或不景气时发生过度扩张或紧缩.

The paper explores the relationship between China＇ s fiscal spending and money supply （M2） for the period of 1978--2002. We found that original time series of the 2 variables were unstable but their second order differences were. There existed a cointegration at 1% significance level. The rate of change of fiscal spending was the Granger cause of M2. Shortterm changes in fiscal spending affected the M2 in the same direction. While the rate of change of M2 showed an inertia and was self-corrective, the rate of change of fiscal spending was not, which implicated that government should lay restraints on its spending to be free from over-expansion when time is good or over contraction when time was bad.